WTTCs latest economic impact research shows that the global Travel & Tourism industry will grow more slowly in 2011 and 2012 than previously forecast.
WTTCs annual research, published in March 2011, forecast growth of 4.5% and 5.1% in 2011 and 2012 respectively. Following the deterioration in global financial conditions in the second half of 2011, the continuing eurozone debt crisis, and the threat of a return to recession in the United States, the growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012 have been downgraded to 3.2% and 3.3% respectively. The numbers measure direct contribution to GDP.
The latest economic data points to a slowdown in economic activity in the spring and summer of 2011. GDP growth in the USA is down from over 3% in the fourth quarter of 2010 to around 1.5% in the second quarter of 2011, with similar levels in the eurozone and growth as low as 0.5% in the UK in Q2 2011. Nevertheless, latest Travel & Tourism indicators show that people are still travelling with international air travel and hotel occupancy rates up.
Whilst Travel & Tourism data for the first half of 2011 has been largely positive, continued concerns around the state of the economy particularly in the USA and Europe mean that confidence levels are low. As the global economic recovery loses momentum and impacts industry performance, the outlook for Travel & Tourism will be weaker in the second half of the 2011 than it was in the first six months.
However, global Travel & Tourism is expected to grow by an average 4% per year between 2011 and 2021. This is down marginally from the 4.3% for the same period that was forecast earlier in the year, with the decline due almost exclusively to the downward revisions in 2011 and 2012.
By 2021 Travel & Tourism is predicted to account for 69 million more jobs almost 80% of which will be in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.
WTTC conducts in-depth economic impact research on individual countries on a regular basis through the year.