2013 Mid-year update
WTTC forecasts that the total contribution from Travel & Tourism to the world economy will be 2.9% in 2013, down from the 3.2% growth initially forecast in February of this year.
The latest economic research, an update on our annual forecasts produced in February, shows that the main indicators for Travel & Tourism are positive for 2013:
• International tourism expenditure exceeded WTTC expectations with estimated growth of 4.0% in 2013, compared with our previous estimate of 3.1%. The growth in international tourism expenditure is partially offset however by weaker growth in domestic tourism expenditure and Travel & Tourism investment, now expected to grow 2.8% rather than the 3.2% predicted at the start of the year.
• Travel & Tourism in South East Asia leads the world with estimated growth of 8.9%; an upgrade from the 6.8% growth predicted at the start of the year, and bucking the trend in many other regions of downward revisions.
• Investment spending for the total global economy has been revised down, due in a large part to weaker confidence aggravated by the developments in the US (particularly the tapering of Quantitative Easing and the budgetary cut-backs) and cooling growth in China. Although the Travel & Tourism investment revision from 4.2% to 3.1% is significant, Travel & Tourism investment has not been downgraded as much as the overall economy due to other positive Travel & Tourism indicators (namely growth in international passenger arrivals and airline passenger traffic).
• Long term growth forecasts of 4.2% per annum growth over the ten years to 2023 are retained as demand from and within emerging markets will continue to rise in significance. Travel & Tourism will continue to grow, outpace growth of the wider economy and remain a leading generator of jobs.